[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 11N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N17W TO 10N20W
9N28W 10N31W 7N44W 9N50W 8N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND
34W...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 36W
AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT
ARE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N84W...
EVENTUALLY INTO HONDURAS. THE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STARTS NEAR 31N76W AND IT CONTINUES
TO 27N79W AND 26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT BECOMES
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT...AND THE DISSIPATING FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N79W...TO 23N87W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N85W
21N86W 19N87W...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 82W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N68W TO 26N70W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO NEAR 24N99W...TO 18N96W...
AND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...FACING THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 23N97W 20N96W 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE TROUGH IS MARKED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS...THAT ARE
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 21N62W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 10N67W ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 26N
BETWEEN 67W AND 82W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5N IN COLOMBIA TO 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN
70W IN NETHERLANDS ANTILLES TO 82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND MIDDLE
LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR...COVER THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N13W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 33N19W 30N30W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 30N30W 25N37W 16N40W AND
10N42W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1001 MB GALE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
37N14W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EMERGES FROM THE 1001 MB GALE
CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N9W...THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS
TO 27N17W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SHIELD THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 14N40W 25N31W
BEYOND 31N22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
20N35W 15N38W 10N39W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 20N TO 28N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N45W 10N46W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE 63W WITH THE 31N78W 27N80W
STATIONARY FRONT...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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