[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 9N25W 9N32W
9N40W 7N43W 7N52W...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SURINAME NEAR
6N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 20W AND 31W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
34W AND 40W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N75W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT...AND THE DISSIPATING FRONT CONTINUES FROM
27N80W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 23N86W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO 21N98W
19N97W...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GUATEMALA...TO 14N88W IN
HONDURAS...TO 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 25N TO 32N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 20N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 14N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N69W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N76W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA...AND INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N17W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 34N14W 31N24W...30N33W 23N38W 17N40W AND 11N40W.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1002 MB GALE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N17W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EMERGES FROM THE 1002 MB GALE
CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N13W...THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS
TO 26N20W AND 24N28W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N44W 14N45W 11N46W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 16N BEWEEN 43W AND 45W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 26W AND 56W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH TO 80W...
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
31N77W 29N81W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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