[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W 9N17W AND 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 7N30W
8N41W AND 6N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N
TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST
FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A AND NOW INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....
EXTENDING ULTIMATELY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE NEW POSITION STILL IS CLOSE TO BEING IN PHASE WITH THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH. THE TROUGH IN GENERAL SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 31N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N76W TO 31N80W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 25N89W TO 22N96W...CURVING TO 19N94W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF 28N96W AT THE TEXAS COAST...24N94W 23N93W 19N93W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE PRESSURE FIELD EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO 28N85W AND 27N86W. THIS POSITION IS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO 21N98W
19N97W...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN GUATEMALA...TO 14N88W
IN HONDURAS...TO 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME MORE
AND MORE LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH CONTINUE
THROUGH 32N67W TO 22N69W...TO THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N67W AND 25N70W. BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
SPILLS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO
THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
30N56W 23N64W 16N70W 14N79W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 21N63W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N67W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N BETWEEN 69W IN VENEZUELA
BEYOND 83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE
WEST OF 77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N33W TO 24N39W
16N40W 8N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N40W 14N42W 11N45W.
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP IN THE CLOUD FIELD IN THE SHORTWAVE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND
41W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 34N19W 31N20W AND 29N24W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS
A 1002 MB GALE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N20W. A COLD FRONT EMERGES
FROM THE 1002 MB GALE CENTER...PASSING THROUGH 32N13W...THE
EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N20W AND 24N28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 32W AND 52W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH TO 80W...
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 65W...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
31N77W 29N81W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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