[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N14W TO
8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N16W TO 7N24W TO 8N35W TO 6N45W
TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 23W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AT
29N80W TO S OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 27N83W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 23N96W TO 22N97W TO 20N94W TO E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO AT
18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W...AND OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N
BETWEEN 90W-100W. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT.
10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONT. CONSIDERABLE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF AND THE SW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE SW GULF DUE TO RETURN SURFACE FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 12N BETWEEN 76W-84W. MORE
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO COSTA
RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
CONSIDERABLE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N79W TO CAPE
CANAVERAL AT 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 72W-76W. A
1013 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 30N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N69W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WELL E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 56W-59W. A 1038 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N48W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 32N18W TO 28N23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N39W TO
12N41W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N64W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC E OF 45W AND N OF 15N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 30W-36W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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