[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W 7N29W TO 6N40W
AND 7N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 14W FROM SIERRA LEONE INTO GUINEA...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND
33W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S.A...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO
THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE
EAST OF 93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
TO THE WEST OF 94W FROM TEXAS TO MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N67W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 23N68W
AND 20N70W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO WESTERN HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 57W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N BETWEEN
62W AND 69W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 20N70W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO WESTERN HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N BETWEEN
62W AND 69W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS NEAR THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS PART OF THE
SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AS LATE AS THE 14/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
AND 81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W
TO 27N30W AND 23N35W...CONTINUING TO 13N35W AND 9N32W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W
TO 31N23W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W FROM 20N TO 26N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 10N TO 19N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 33W AND 36W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W

A SEPARATE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W FROM 10N TO 16N. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 28W AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
RELATED TO THE 31N66W 28N67W 20N70W SURFACE TROUGH...AND
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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