[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA/GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 11N15W TO 9N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N18W 8N25W TO
8N32W 6N42W 8N53W 8N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W FROM GUINEA AND
GUINEA-BISSAU INTO SENEGAL...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N IN THE
SIERRA LEONE COASTAL WATERS TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W...ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OF THE U.S.A. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 30N82W IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHERN
SHORES OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT
ARE RELATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N67W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA
TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N67W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N68W...
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 20N70W...INTO THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 70W AND THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 13N80W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WAS PART OF THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS AS LATE AS THE 14/0600 UTC
SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N81W
IN THE SOUTHERN PANAMA...CROSSING SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR AND
BEYOND 9N83W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W
TO 29N28W AND 25N39W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 31N28W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 11N TO 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 25N42W 22N43W 19N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 33W
AND 35W...FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...AND WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N41W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO
26N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

A SEPARATE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N37W 16N38W 12N39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W
AND 39W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 WINDS AND 9 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
RELATED TO THE 31N67W 26N57W 20N69W SURFACE TROUGH...AND
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF
30N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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