[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W TO 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W TO 6N30W TO
10N40W TO THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 20W-28W...AND FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 36W-43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA...AND TRINIDAD FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
59W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 31N82W
TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W TO E OF COATZACOALCOS
MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF
FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT
EASTERLY WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
REMAINS OVER THE N GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT. CONSIDERABLE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF AND THE W GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER MISSISSIPPI AND THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W GULF TO DISSIPATE
WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE
GULF. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE SW GULF DUE TO RETURN SURFACE FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
...AND PANAMA S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W-83W. MORE SHOWERS ARE INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM BELIZE TO COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-69W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SHOWERS N OF
PUERTO RICO. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
13N...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO 27N65W TO
N OF E HISPANIOLA AT 20N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 25N41W TO 18N42W DEPICTING A WIND SHIFT. IN THE TROPICS...
ANOTHER SURFACE EXTENDS FROM 17N37W TO 11N39W MOVING W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 27N69W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOVE THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N35W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN
31W-36W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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