[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL/GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W 7N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N21W
TO 7N34W 9N41W 8N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W AND FROM
4N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OF THE U.S.A. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND... 26N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST
NEAR 20N...AND CONTINUING TO 22N100W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N100W TO 27N104W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W...INTO THE WESTERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE COAST OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 31N84W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND AREA...TO
27N87W TO 25N91W...BEYOND 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
WEST OF THE 30N85W TO 24N95W TO 20N97W COLD FRONT FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS ABOUT 215 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N44W TO 31N50W
AND 30N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N57W TO 25N63W
TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
240 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N69W 21N64W 27N64W 31N60W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 25W AND 65W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 19N66W JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 16N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 22N64W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN AND 78W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N64W 14N64W 11N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM VENEZUELA TO 11N
BETWEEN 60W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO
7N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 78W
AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N35W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 41W FROM 18N TO 28N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE STRONG FROM 14N TO 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.

A SEPARATE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N36W 10N39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 41W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 10N TO 16N. IT IS NOT
EASY TO FIND DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THIS TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE 31N55W 19N67W
SURFACE TROUGH...AND 9 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 27N41W 18N41W SURFACE
TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net