[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GAMBIA/SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO 10N18W 8N20W 7N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N23W TO 10N36W...TO 11N41W 10N50W 10N57W AND 9N60W IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN
19W AND 32W...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM VENEZUELA TO 11N BETWEEN
60W AND 61W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.A.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE U.S.A....SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 27N90W
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N...
AND CONTINUING TO 23N101W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 23N101W TO 27N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH TEXAS NEAR 28N99W 23N98W 21N98W. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE COAST OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N85W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...TO 28N88W TO 26N90W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 94W AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE COLD FRONT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS ABOUT 215 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W
TO 31N53W AND 29N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 29N58W
TO 25N62W TO 19N66W JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 16N68W 22N64W 27N64W 29N58W 31N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N56W 32N53W 31N40W BEYOND
32N36W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 19N66W JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 16N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 22N64W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN AND 78W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N64W 14N64W 11N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM VENEZUELA TO 11N
BETWEEN 60W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N79W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA INTO
EASTERN COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND WESTERN COSTA RICA INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 78W
AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N35W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 28N42W 23N40W 19N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 24N
BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN
28W AND 32W.

A SEPARATE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N35W 14N37W 11N39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 36W AND 41W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N51W 13N52W. IT IS NOT EASY
TO FIND DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
34N71W TO 31N81W NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE 31N55W 19N67W
SURFACE TROUGH...AND 8 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE 19N39W 28N42W SURFACE
TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net