[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112305
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT
12N16W TO 8N18W TO 7N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N225W TO 12N42W
TO 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 13W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE
NE GULF CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS.
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE W GULF AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON MORNING. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE NE
GULF...STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE BASIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG
HIGH PRES SURGING DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE WINDS IN THE SW GULF TO 25-30 KT AND INCREASE SEAS
TO 8-11 FT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH IN THE W ATLC COVERS MOST OF THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BASIN. A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN STRONG NE FLOW OF 20-25
KT ARE EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AROUND 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ARE
BEGINNING TO REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES INTO THE WEST
ATLC MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS SPREADING OVER THE AREA AS IT WRAPS AROUND A RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A TROUGH ALONG 70W. THE TROUGH IS ADDING
SUPPORT TO A SHEAR LINE BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N51W
TO 21N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 20N62W TO 14N60W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50W EXTENDS INTO A LARGER UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NE ATLC...SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1031
MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 37N25W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
NEAR 24N38W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
18N-27N BETWEEN 32W-37W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH W OF THIS AREA IS
ALONG 19N44W TO 14N46W BUT NOT CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SECOND TROUGH WILL FORM NEAR THE ACTIVE AREA
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF FROM THE
MAIN FRONT AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL



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