[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
7N20W 7N30W 10N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. LARGE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150/180 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-45W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
11N-21N BETWEEN 20W-33W BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE
AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS THEN N-NE TO OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY NW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS CONTINUING TO INTRODUCE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE E
GULF WHILE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF. A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NE NORTH
CAROLINA. THICKENING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER ALL
BUT THE NE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW GULF MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA SW TO 24N95W THEN S TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO TUE MORNING
NE FLORIDA SW TO 24N94W BECOMING STATIONARY TO COATZACOALCOS WED
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
ACROSS CUBA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N
BETWEEN 70W-85W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN
THE W ATLC WHILE THE SHEAR AXIS NO LONGER EXISTS. HOWEVER...
REMNANT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 18N ACROSS HAITI AND CUBA BETWEEN 73W-82W AND WITHIN 90
NM OF LINE FROM 18N80W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N61W THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES
TO 11N63W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 60W-65W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 80W TO
INLAND OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W EXCEPT SOME LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS USHERED IN ON THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH THE NE TO E TRADE WINDS INCREASING OVER THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE MON AND TUE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND EXTENDS S
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W CONTINUING
ALONG 24N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NE NORTH
CAROLINA. THICKENING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT INCLUDING FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE EXCEPTION IS N
OF 30N W OF 76W WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N38W WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 15N37W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N39W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 18N40W TO 16N39W. THE SW SHEAR AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPOSING THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N38W TO 22N33W. A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE W ATLC COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY REACHING FROM 32N50W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TONIGHT THEN FROM 32N46W TO 28N53W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SUN NIGHT DISSIPATING ON
MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON THROUGH WED
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FROM W TO E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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