[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N19W TO 11N36W TO 06N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 18W-47W. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WHICH IS SUPPORTING A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA NEAR 33N86W. MOSTLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS
IS ACROSS THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL INCREASE THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING
MOSTLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALOFT. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION WITH THE TROUGH BASE LOCATED OVER CUBA THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE
ATLC...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N73W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W THEN SOUTHWEST TO 12N82W. AS
TYPICAL WITH SHEAR LINES...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 09/1536
UTC SHOWS STRONGER N-NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SHEAR LINE IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 10N IN THIS AREA IS ALSO PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 10N...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INLAND
PANAMA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY
AN APPROACHING WEAK TROUGH ALONG 60W INTRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE
FEATURE MOVES WESTWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N
OF 32N BETWEEN 70W-80W THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH AN AXIS ALONG 32N69W TO OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N58W TO 25N64W
TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 360 NM EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT N OF 27N...WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT S OF
27N...AND WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. ELSEWHERE WEST
OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM
THE SE CONUS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA NEAR 33N86W. EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N36W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR
20N35W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N-21N ALONG 38W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 19N38W...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
13N-25N BETWEEN 19W-36W DUE TO MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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