[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR
13N17W TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N19W TO 8N30W
7N40W...AND 7N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 11N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS...ACROSS CUBA...BEYOND
32N62W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BEYOND 32N62W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W
TO 26N63W...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N84W OFF THE HONDURAS COAST. THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 27N65W AND 20N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES
DISSIPATING STATIONARY 20N70W...IT PASSES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
HISPANIOLA...TO WESTERN JAMAICA...TO 15N82W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...AND FROM 20N
TO 21N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN HAITI AND 79W NEAR WESTERN JAMAICA...AND FROM 14N
TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AT 24 HOURS INTO THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 22N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AT 48 HOURS
TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN HAITI AND 79W NEAR WESTERN JAMAICA...AND FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. THE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE 20N70W
15N82W DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF 20N64W 15N68W 14N81W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N82W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO
12N BETWEEN 82W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF 72W FROM THE START
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W. A 1032 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N36W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 19N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
11N TO 23W BETWEEN 25W AND 46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W...AND FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 33N15W TO 26N21W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 50W...ELSEWHERE WITH
A COLD FRONT 31N63W TO 20N68W...20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN THE DISTANCE OF 300 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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