[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL/
NORTHWESTERN GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 8N24W 8N40W...AND 6N49W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 30W...
AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS...ACROSS CUBA...BEYOND
32N62W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BEYOND 32N62W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W...
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N64W TO 24N68W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 24N68W TO
20N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N74W
TO 19N80W AND 15N83W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 56W AND
65W...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BETWEEN 70W AND THE BORDER WITH HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE BAHAMAS
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT
300 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM 25N TO 30N.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AT 24 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM 22N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 81W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 72W AND 85W...AND WITHIN
75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 20N74W TO 16N77W...
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N43W 28N50W 23N60W.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N31W 26N27W...
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 12N24W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N14W TO 26N20W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 19N35W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 11N TO 23W BETWEEN 26W AND 45W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W
AND 30W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N
TO 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 50W...ELSEWHERE
WITH A COLD FRONT 31N65W TO 28N66W TO 22N68W...20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
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