[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N17W TO 07N29W TO 07N45W TO 05N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 17W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ALOFT WITHIN A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE GULF BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FURTHER SUPPORTING
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE NEAR 36N88W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N96W AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY PROVIDING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE GULF. OVER THE WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND PROVIDE FOR STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. THE
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE FAR NW GULF
WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
14N61W OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO 11N84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF 15N. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT N OF 15N AND A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 19N81W TO 16N85W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 08N83W TO NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 77W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS ALOFT WHICH IS RESULTING IN OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS AND
CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE E OF 76W. HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 63W-75W
AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 12N
BETWEEN 60W-65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST NEAR 43N70W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BROAD TROUGHING OVER
SW NORTH ATLC N OF 21N W OF 60W. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N73W TO EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 21N BETWEEN 56W-70W WHICH IS LIKELY
ENHANCED BY MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N38W
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RESULTS IN A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 18N34W TO 22N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 25W-38W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES
NEAR 39N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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