[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W TO 11N18W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N18W TO 6N30W 5N40W...TO 7N50W AND
7N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 9W AND 15W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 45W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS...ACROSS CUBA...BEYOND
32N65W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TOWARD BERMUDA IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 39N71W OFF THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N69W.
THE FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE FROM 30N69W TO 24N75W IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 52W AND 62W...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. COLD AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS
ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 94W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N95W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AT 48 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
EAST OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 74W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
48 HOUR FORECAST...TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N...WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N74W
TO 169N77W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33W/34W FROM 17N BEYOND 32N.
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N52W
23N59W AND 18N68W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W
TO 25N25W TO 16N32W 12N37W AND 9N43W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N41W TO 23N38W AND 17N35W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N44W 22N46W 18N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 32W
AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
29W AND 31W...FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W...AND FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS N OF 20N E OF A LINE FROM 31N46W TO 20N40W...
AND THEN WITH A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 27N75W TO 22N79W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net