[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 4N27W 8N37W
AND 8N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
5N TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN
41W AND 49W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO AND INCLUDING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W...TO GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...
INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM
CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF 25N80W 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AND TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 91W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N66W 23N79W AT THE CUBA COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TO A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W...
INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. PLEASE REFER
TO THE MIAHSFEP2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA...SPINNING AWAY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 68W AND 69W IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN A CLOUD BAND...WITHIN
60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N79W 18N84W 16N88W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N...BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 86W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 76W AT THE COLOMBIA
COAST AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N BETWEEN 74W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 8N
TO THE EAST OF 80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 20N TO 27N. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N49W TO 28N50W AND 24N51W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
24N40W TO 16N36W AND 9N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 32W AND 45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N35W TO 29N36W AND 21N37W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO
25N19W AND 18N21W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 30W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 42W...AND THEN WITH
A 31N75W 26N80W COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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