[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N19W TO 06N30W TO 09N46W TO 06N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 36W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DOMINATING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AS OF 06/2100 UTC ANALYZED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO THE
TAMPA BAY REGION AND ALONG 28N83W TO 25N90W TO 25N96W. THE FRONT
REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SE GULF FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN
81W-86W. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR AS A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE
GULF THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRIMARILY NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
15N67W OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE AS FAR
WEST AS 90W. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WHICH ARE ADVECTING
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 78W-88W...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 75W IS UNDER FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALOFT THIS EVENING WITH SKIES
REMAINING RELATIVELY CLEAR. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN AND
LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N76W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 26N80W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER A MUCH LARGER AREA N OF 21N BETWEEN 54W-78W IN AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 15N67W AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N29W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N-27N ALONG 48W AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 39W-45W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
FINALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 40N13W THAT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
31N10W TO 25N25W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 26N E OF
20W WITH THE FRONT...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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