[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 8N28W 9N41W
AND 8N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
7N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM EASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN U.S.A. AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO...HAS MOVED MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS OFF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
28N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N80W...ACROSS
FLORIDA TO 28N86W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO A WARM
FRONT THAT RUNS FROM 28N86W TO A SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N92W. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO A SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N99W.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N99W...TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...
AND IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD TO 34N106W IN NEW MEXICO.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DEVELOPING FROM THE LOUISIANA LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST
ALONG 96W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND
FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH 21N97W TO 24N86W
BEYOND 26N80W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N97W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
1011 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N85W IN 12 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27.5N87W AND
26.5N97W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF 80W...FROM JAMAICA NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 73W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 18N75W BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N
TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS
TO THE WEST OF 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN
AN AREA OF SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT WIND FLOW
UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
9N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
COASTAL PANAMA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 80W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND 77W. THIS PRECIPITATION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N73W 28N80W COLD FRONT.

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
20N74W 25N67W BEYOND 32N62W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W
TO 27N47W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 59W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N40W TO 31N44W
AND 29N54W TO 28N68W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W
TO 26N25W 18N26W TO 11N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
36W AND 42W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W 29N20W 25N29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 25W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE 31N55W 21N42W STARTING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN
AT 24 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 42W...AND
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 31N77W TO 26N82W
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO 79W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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