[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
11N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N21W TO 08N28W TO 06N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-11N BETWEEN 38W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSING E-SE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. CURRENTLY
A LINGERING SLOW-MOVING AND NEARLY STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
GULF FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION WESTWARD TO 27N90W. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF
15 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST N OF 26N BY LATE TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...
GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ALOFT
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH IS RESULTING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
27N82W TO 22N98W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS AREA OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
14N81W OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE AS FAR
EAST AS 60W. W OF 80W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AND GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN
81W-88W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DUE TO THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER TO THE EAST
UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...
MOSTLY NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE AND ACCORDING TO WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ARE PROVIDING A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE FOR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. WHILE OVERALL SKIES REMAIN FAIR E OF 75W...A FEW
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N E OF 68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC W OF 60W THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGHING...
ONE EXITING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA NEAR 40N69W AND THE OTHER
PROGRESSING E-SE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERNMOST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 32N74W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR
28N81W. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 31N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SE CONUS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATES CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY WITH USHERING
IN A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE REGION. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR
30N52W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N52W TO 31N54W
THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N60W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE SURFACE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-65W. FINALLY...OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
OVER NW PORTUGAL NEAR 44N10W TO 23N32W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N16W TO 26N29W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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