[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041709
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 7N30W TO 6N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
10W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N88W. FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS
ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER S LOUISIANA AND S MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS OVER THE W GULF
N OF 20N W OF 93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD AND CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE W GULF... AND THE NE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH
TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA
TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO E TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 78W-83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM BELIZE TO
PANAMA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO N OF 18N BETWEEN 62W-70W. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W ESPECIALLY OVER
TRINIDAD. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N NICARAGUA
14N85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO 27N71W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WELL N OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE FROM
20N-24N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
28N25W TO 22N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN
21W-28W. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N36W
TO 9N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
50W-58W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED NEAR 31N26W ABOVE
THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS N OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLAND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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