[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N26W 12N38W 9N52W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 35W-41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 15W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE GULF TO THE BORDER
OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N88W. THE COMBINATION OF S SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE NW GULF COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 90W. DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE E GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH SUN THEN REORGANIZE ACROSS THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT
ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF
EARLY TUE THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE JUST N OF
THE AREA LATE WED THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED W
AND IS NOW ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N84W
THROUGH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N83W TO 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT W INLAND THROUGH SUN. A STRONG GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY ON WED THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT STALLS FROM E CUBA TO CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE WED AND THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 30N W OF 50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC
OVER BERMUDA TO 31N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N57W ALONG 27N61W TO 25N68W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS
OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 70W GIVING THE ARE REMARKABLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 16N52W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N
TO BEYOND 32N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE W OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N50W 23N60W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N69W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75
NM OF LINE FROM 26N59W TO 30N52W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
24N61W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 30W TO 11N AND
SUPPORTING A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 32N25W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N31W TO 21N38W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER AFRICA
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN THE COAST OF
AFRICA AND 29W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MEANDER AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NE AND INTO TO
THE W ATLC LATE SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA BY TUE ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 32N69W TO E
CUBA BY LATE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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