[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT NOV 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N50W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 19W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE BETWEEN 5N-8N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N94W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS JUST S OF GALVESTON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 95W-96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
27N89W. A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 24N81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM CUBA TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS BETWEEN 80W-83W. THE SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SE
GULF COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT IS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SLOWLY S INTO NW CUBA AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT NE INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH SUN AND
THEN REORGANIZE ACROSS THE W ATLC SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY MOVE SE ACROSS THE E GULF MON AND
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N79W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN
79W-84W INCLUDING PORTIONS FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 20N W OF 86W. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N79W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA
NEAR 18N72W AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY W THROUGH SUN. THE TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.
A STRONG GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATE WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 25N FROM 65W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC OVER BERMUDA CONTINUING ALONG 27N71W THEN
WEAKENING OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 25N75W INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE
FRONT E OF 73W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 18N52W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N
TO BEYOND 32N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE W OF THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG 30N58W 25N61W TO 21N69W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W ALONG 26N62W TO 31N52W. AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 33N27W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO 15N34W AND SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 32N29W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 25N32W TO 18N38W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN
24W-28W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER AFRICA IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N33W ALONG 24N22W TO 31N17W
INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL DRIFT SE AND REACH FROM NEAR 32N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA BEFORE
DISSIPATING SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM NE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO NW ATLC  MON AND TUE ALLOWING FOR YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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