[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH AND NO ITCZ EXIST AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE
OF LARGE-SCALE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N84W INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SPANS
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM MEXICO AND TEXAS
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING 87W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 28N91W.
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
NEAR 24N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N60W...BEYOND 32N56W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA...THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS COASTAL BORDER AREA. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
PROMINENT FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES THROUGH 77W/78W FROM 10N TO 16N...
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N
TO JAMAICA BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH SHOWED UP WELL IN THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 86W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W IN COLOMBIA
AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND FROM 3N TO
5N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 80W AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N70W AND 26N76W.
BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SUPPORTING THE FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N32W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N36W AND 13N39W. A 997 MB
GALE CENTER IS NEAR 31N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 24N37W 23N49W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES
AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS
BULLETIN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE GALE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH...ALONG 28N22W 20N29W 12N39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N20W 16N27W...AND WITHIN 300
TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N27W 8N34W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 31N71W 27N80W
COLD FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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