[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN.
THERE IS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC IMPEDING BOTH THE TROUGH AND ITCZ. DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM THE TROPICS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS
AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-20N
BETWEEN 22W-27W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE W ATLC AND S OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
BEFORE CROSSING FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO BEACH TO TAMPA INTO THE
GULF TO NEAR 27N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 24N90W. A SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-96W. DRY UPPER AIR
REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
W ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT NW TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND PASS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA LATE FRI. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S SUN NIGHT
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT CLIP THE N GULF ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM S OF JAMAICA
NEAR 17N77W TO 11N79W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA AND HAITI
NEAR 20N75W TO 14N78W AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N80W CROSSING COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 10N84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 10N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE  W/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W TUE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR 11N ALONG THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER BERMUDA ALONG 28N72W TO 27N68W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CROSSES FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 31N59W ALONG 24N66W TO JUST N OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 59W TO BEYOND 32N AND IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N68W TO ACROSS CUBA
AND HAITI NEAR 20N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 30N33W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH A 995 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N34W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW ALONG 20N40W TO 17N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 25W-34W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 29N25W ALONG
21N29W TO 14N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH FRI. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
E REACHING FROM 32N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI THEN
BE FORCED SE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CLIP THE W ATLC SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA LATE FRI AND MERGE WITH REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTS
ALONG A LINE FROM 32N59W TO THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SAT.
THE GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ON SUN. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE NE PASSING BERMUDA MON NIGHT WITH A RIDGE SW TO SE
FLORIDA AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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