[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH AND NO ITCZ EXIST AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE OF
LARGE-SCALE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 29W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 9N TO 16N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 24W AND 28W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N29W 11N35W 5N44W 6N47W.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AND WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION WITH TIME...FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IN THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH SURROUNDS THE
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF SANDY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED
THROUGH GEORGIA SIX HOURS AGO...AND NOW IT IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG 77W/78W TO THE NORTH OF 30N.

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH 29N87W TO 21N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND
93W...AND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...
BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N89W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...
BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH HAITI BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IS
FILLED WITH PURELY MIDDLE LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED WITH
SOUTHERLY-TO- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA AT THIS MOMENT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY AT THE MOMENT.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE
WEST OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
SUPPORTS A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W
TO 28N76W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...
TO 28N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N62W TO 25N66W...TO
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W...AND FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 14N...PASSING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N34W TO
14N39W. A 997 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 30N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N35W 19N40W AND 18N50W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 20N29W 15N34W 9N40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 66W.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 997 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 31N35W...MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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