[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH AND NO ITCZ EXIST AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE OF
LARGE-SCALE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 9N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W
AND 27W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N29W 11N35W 5N44W 6N47W.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AND WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION WITH TIME...FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IN THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH SURROUNDS THE
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF SANDY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING BEHIND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...NOW MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...
BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N89W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE HIGH CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N99W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...TO 19N89W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 23N81W IN CUBA...
BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH HAITI BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IS
FILLED WITH PURELY MIDDLE LEVEL-TO-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED WITH
SOUTHERLY-TO- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH
VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA AT THIS MOMENT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 74W/76W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...MOVING
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST
OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS THE REMNANTS OF SANDY
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 29N75W
AND 28N79W. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM
28N79W TO 28N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W
TO 25N66W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N34W TO
22N40W TO 15N40W. A 994 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR 30N35W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N35W AND 20N46W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 11N40W 20N29W 23N26W...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N
TO 30N BETWEEN 19W AND 26W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OR SO...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 61W.
A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF
45W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 13 TO 20 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N61W 10N48W 14N35W...20 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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