[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 11N MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD PATTERN IS NOTED ALONG 22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 20W-26W.

AN E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 58W-64W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
AND CONTINUES TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N15W TO 3N30W TO
3N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 14W-18W...FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
28W-35W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 55W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER E TEXAS MOVING E. A SQUALL LINE WITH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING EXTENDS FROM SW ALABAMA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER FLORIDA
AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. EMBEDDED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 81W-87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS.... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE E
OVER THE NE GULF WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...
COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. FURTHER E...RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER
PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN
72W-80W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N47W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N26W TO 28N33W.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SEE ABOVE. A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ALSO EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO 45W S OF 25N.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SE OF
BERMUDA NEAR 29N58W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 47W-57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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