[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311812
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N21W 3N22W.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N58W 7N59W.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 31N49W 24N56W 15N54W 11N55W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W
AND 61W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
7N TO 11N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 3N30W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...AND THEN CONTINUING FROM 1S TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W AND 45W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO...AND
SPILLS OVER INTO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF 90W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TWO
AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ARE SQUEEZING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SECTION AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN MEXICO JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF GUATEMALA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD...INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE
EAST OF 90W. A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN
MEXICO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND NEAR
THE WESTERN EDGE OF GUATEMALA. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 81W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 10N78W TO 18N79W
BEYOND 26N79W BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 83W/84W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 32N71W TO 25N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N49W
24N56W 15N54W 11N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...POSSIBLY
REACHING SOME OF THE NEARBY EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS THE RESULT OF THE
INTERACTION OF THE 31N49W 11N55W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
13N58W 7N59W TROPICAL WAVE. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 34N20W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 18W AND 50W. THE
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 28N34W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE COLD
FRONT...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 33N17W
TO 23N28W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
24N46W...TO 30N69W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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