[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL AT 30/1500 UTC IS NEAR
34.2N 78.0W. BERYL IS ALSO ABOUT 5 MILES/10 KM TO THE WEST OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 17 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THE
CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
BERYL WILL LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY IS HIGH.
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...IN
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.
EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
OCCURRING FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W ABOUT EIGHT HOURS
AGO APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED WITH TIME DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N54W 8N55W TO 4N55W
IN SURINAME. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A NEARBY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WAS COVERING THE AREA FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W
AND 55W ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LINGERING RAINSHOWERS NOW
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
9N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 4N25W AND
2N34W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 2N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 8N
BETWEEN 42W AND 54W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
BE RELATED TO SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE WIND FIELD IN THAT AREA.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 8W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA/THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER STARTED IN WESTERN GUATEMALA ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO AND IT
HAS MOVED NORTHWARD STEADILY SINCE THEN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 25N88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TO A NORTHERN GUATEMALA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N82W 18N86W INTO WESTERN HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 86W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W...AND ALONG THE COASTS FROM PANAMA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FROM 9N TO 12N. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 6N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL STILL IS MAKING HEADLINES. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NEAR
THE AREA THAT SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL AND IT REACHES
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N
TO 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 31N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N63W...BECOMING
A SHEAR AXIS FROM 26N63W TO 20N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
27N56W 27N60W 24N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...THAT HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME DURING THE
LAST EIGHT HOURS...IS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 23N
BETWEEN 59W AND 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W
TO 28N37W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W TO 32N45W ENDING NEAR 33N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 33N51W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
THAT ARE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N17W...
THROUGH 32N19W...TO 26N29W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 23N41W...TO 24N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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