[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR
33.1N 79.8W...ABOUT 20 NM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...OR
ABOUT 120 NM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING
ENE AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT.
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER VERY SHORTLY WITH
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING LATER ON IN THE DAY...AND
BERYL COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...EXTEND MAINLY IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IMPACTING NE SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SE NORTH CAROLINA. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY
BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N53W TO 4N55W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N15W TO 5N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N21W
ALONG 6N26W 3N39W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 11W-21W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1015 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N89W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE BASIN. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO POPPED UP FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 83W-87W. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
DUE TO AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT HAS DRIFTED
NWD WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY SUPPORTING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 77W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 83W-88W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO COVER MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA S OF 12N ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA
AT 9N75W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN
AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC AHEAD OF
A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N E OF 63W. MOISTURE IN THE
WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE
BAHAMAS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 67W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA TO NEAR 35N73W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N61W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 28N57W TO 24N64W SUPPORTING A FEW CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 47N40W TO 14N53W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTING BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 24N46W AND
26N27W WHICH ARE PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA
OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W
WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR
CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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