[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR
32.2N 81.3W...ABOUT 15 NM WNW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA...OR ABOUT 75
NM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING ENE AT 9
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER SOMETIME THIS MORNING WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING LATER ON IN THE DAY...AND
BERYL COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY EXTEND MAINLY IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FARTHER S ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND
OFFSHORE TO THE E. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N51W TO 3N56W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 49W-55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
49W-55W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 54W-58W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W
ALONG 4N37W 8N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 11W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 36W-40W....AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN LOUISIANA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1015 MB
HIGH NEAR 26N90W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE BASIN. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THIS AREA AROUND BERYL. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE ERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA DUE TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N88W TO 13N93W. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO LIKELY SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS
AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 76W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR
THE ERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH OF
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1005 MB
LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 8N74W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLC AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE
ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N E OF 65W.
MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS NEARING THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND
ABOUT TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE BAHAMAS FROM
21N-27N BETWEEN 69W-78W ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA TO
NEAR 33N75W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH
NEAR 32N69W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS TO THE E FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 55W-61W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 46N40W TO 12N54W.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND
TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 16N13W. THE UPPER
RIDGE SUPPORTS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
23N40W...AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N27W WHICH ARE PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM
THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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