[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ON 2100 UTC MAY 29 IS CENTERED NEAR
31.8N 82.5W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM N OF WAYCROSS GEORGIA..OR  ABOUT
85 MI...135 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA...MOVING NE OR 055 DEG AT
7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BACK
OVER WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE REPORTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER.
REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS... MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AS INDICATED FROM
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N22W TO
4N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 6N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 8W-17W...FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 33W-36W...AND FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT
26N91W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF
OF MEXICO W OF 87W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS HOWEVER INLAND OVER N FLORIDA DUE TO BERYL.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS FROM NEAR BERYL AT 30N83W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER N FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 85W. EXPECT
CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
82W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-21N
BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER N...RAIN WITH
PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS INLAND OVER GEORGIA. RAINBANDS
EXTEND 90 NM OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. A
1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N62W. A 1021
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N43W. A THIRD 1021
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N27W. OF NOTE...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 55W-60W MOVING W. A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST ALSO EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO 45W S OF 25N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BERMUDA. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN
35W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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