[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR
30.8N 83.4W...ABOUT 50 NM ENE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...OR ABOUT
140 NM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING NW AT 4 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. RAINBANDS
CONTINUE TO HIT NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA MAINLY S AND E OF THE
CENTER. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS IN AN OUTERBAND TO THE S ABOUT
100 NM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY
BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N46W TO 3N50W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 7N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N22W
ALONG 6N47W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NE FL TO THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR
ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH NEAR
26N91W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NE CORNER. CYCLONIC FLOW AND AN OUTER
RAINBAND ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ARE NEAR THE
NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAND EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO
29N85W. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE
GULF...BUT IS DOING SO SLOWLY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
IN THE NE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF
THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE WRN
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 19N86W TO 15N86W IS HELPING PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
80W-84W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO JUST W OF
JAMAICA. A FEW STRONG SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1005 MB LOW OVER NRN
COLOMBIA AT 8N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER
WINDS TO THE N OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS JUST E OF THE
WINDWARDS ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE ISLANDS AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
MOVES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THIS AREA AND COULD MOVE OVER LAND AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF CUBA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL CONTINUES TO IMPACT NE FLORIDA...SE
GEORGIA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NRN FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER
RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N68W. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS N OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER PRODUCING A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 67W-72W. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE N CENTRAL ATLC WITH A PORTION EXTENDING
INTO THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR
13N54W. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A PAIR
OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 26N44W...AND 27N28W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR
44W WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR
CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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