[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ON 28/2100 UTC IS LOCATED AT 30.8N
83.1W...APPROXIMATELY 10 MI...20 KM E OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA...OR
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING NNW AT
4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. RAINBANDS CONTINUE
OVER N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. PLEASE
READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS...MIATCMAT2
/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 11N45W TO 2N47W MOVING W
AT 5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS...DUE IN LARGE PART TO A BROAD
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 18N45W TO 10N50W. AN
ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W AND CONTINUES SW TO 7N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 7N21W TO 5N30W TO 4N40W TO 7N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT
7N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 10W-16W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A
1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N91W.
10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO W
OF 86W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
HOWEVER INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA S OF BERYL.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS FROM NEAR BERYL AT
30N83W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER N FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 86W. EXPECT
BERYL TO BE OVER GEORGIA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 82W-85W. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER MOST OF CUBA. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W HONDURAS...AND
GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA. RAINBANDS EXTEND
40 NM OFF THE COASTS OF N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA. A 1022 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N66W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N44W. A THIRD 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N30W. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER BERYL. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
24N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS PRODUCING RAIN AND
SHOWERS FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 37W-47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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