[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS DOWNGRADED AT 26/1500 UTC AND
LOCATED AT 30.5N 82.7W...APPROXIMATELY 60 MI WNW OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 40 NM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. BERYL IS
MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40
KT. RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO HIT NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA WITHIN
100 NM OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 11N40W TO 07N46W
DRIFTING W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS...DUE IN LARGE PART TO A
BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 18N45W TO
10N50W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 2358 UTC SHOWED WEAK CYCLONIC
TURNING AT THE SURFACE FROM 10N42W TO 08N42W...NEAR A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS
MINIMAL...AND THIS CONVECTION WAS LIKELY THE RESULT OF THE
INTERACTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE MID LEVEL PORTION OF THE
WAVE THAT PRESENTED WELL IN SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. A 1230
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH N TO NE FLOW N OF 09N W OF 45W...AN
INDICATION THAT THE WAVE IS NOT MAKING MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW THE MID LEVEL WAVE IS NOW
AROUND 48W S OF 12N IN AN AREA OF DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W TO 08N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N20W TO 05N30W TO 07N40W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N48W TO 10N40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 07N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N105W
WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FL NEAR BERYL TO THE NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 23N87W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NE CORNER IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WHERE BERYL IS APPROACHING THROUGH N
CENTRAL FLORIDA ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE NW
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
HELPING PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
17N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED NEAR THIS CONVECTION...MAINLY
FROM 20N83W TO 16N80W. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ARE
TOGETHER SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
WWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND AREA OF
MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AHEAD OF A TROPICAL
WAVE STILL IN THE ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS NOW INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF BERYL WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE ERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR BERMUDA.
THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 24N60W TO
20N63W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH
TWO SHORTWAVES EXTENDING OFF OF IT ALONG 50W AND 35W. A SECOND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH
ALONG 40W N OF 26N. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY ALONG WITH
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATES A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO
40W...WHICH IS PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN
TRPCL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN





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