[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 281448
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS
COULD STILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MOVING OVER LAND. ONCE OVER
OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE COULD RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LATTER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5
KNOTS. BERYL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHLY PACKED THIS
MORNING.

AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL IS VERY
HEAVY RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 30.5N  82.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 31.0N  83.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1200Z 31.5N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0000Z 32.5N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/1200Z 33.5N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1200Z 36.5N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/1200Z 40.0N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1200Z 44.5N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI



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