[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 1200 UTC...BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 82.5W...ABOUT 50
NM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 55 NM ESE OF VALDOSTA
GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING W AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 45 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT. RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO HIT NE FLORIDA
AND SE GEORGIA WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER. A CLUSTER OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO FARTHER S FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN
81W-82W...AS WELL AS OFFSHORE FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 13N42W TO 6N46W MOVING
W NEAR 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 39W-46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W
ALONG 4N31W 7N43W 5N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 13W-17W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
18W-27W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-35. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N104W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO
LOUISIANA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FL TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE
RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N91W IS HELPING
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME NE CORNER. CYCLONIC FLOW AND A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERYL ARE
NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA.
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W FOR A LITTLE LONGER
BEFORE MAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS IT MOVES
WWD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER INTO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ERN GULF
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BERYL HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH NE OF
THE BASIN TO ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS HELPING
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO S OF 15N BETWEEN 77W-84W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA ALONG
10N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 69W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20
KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN
THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND COULD LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IN THE ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS NOW INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF BERYL WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 35N66W. THE
UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
32N66W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N59W TO 20N59W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TWO SHORTWAVES
EXTENDING OFF OF IT ALONG 53W AND 37W. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
30N41W TO 26N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE AXIS FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 35W-39W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS A SURFACE
RIDGE SPLITTING IT TO ALLOW TWO 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERS
NEAR 26N45W AND 27N32W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC
CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N22W. GOES-R DUST
ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS
FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 40W...WHICH IS PROVIDING A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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