[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 0410 UTC...TROPICAL STORM BERYL MADE LANDFALL NEAR
JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA. AS OF 0600 UTC...BERYL IS CENTERED
NEAR 30.3N 81.6W...ABOUT 5 NM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...OR
ABOUT 50 NM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING W AT 7 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 55 KT GUSTS TO 70 KT. RAINBANDS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN HITTING PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND
NE FLORIDA. THE OUTERMOST BAND EXTENDS 120 NM FROM THE CENTER
AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SRN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SE
GEORGIA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO S OF THE
CENTER FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 79W-81W. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST
ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 12N42W TO 3N47W MOVING
W AT 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES HIGH MOISTURE VALUES SURROUND THE
WAVE AXIS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 39W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W ALONG
5N30W 7N44W 6N59W. BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 11W-14W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 16W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N103W WITH AXIS
EXTENDING TO LOUISIANA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NE FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB HIGH OVER NRN
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NE CORNER. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ARE NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W
INTO FLORIDA BEFORE MAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NE. AS IT MOVES
WWD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER INTO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ERN GULF
AS BERYL MOVES WWD WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE WRN
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND BY A NOW DISSIPATED TROPICAL WAVE IS HELPING PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN
79W-83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT
COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 69W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN
THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND COULD LIKELY PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL IN THE ATLC.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS NOW INLAND NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SYSTEM. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF BERYL WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 35N67W.
THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 35N68W. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR 24N-30N
BETWEEN 54W-59W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH TWO SHORTWAVES EXTENDING OFF OF IT ALONG 55W AND 40W.
THE SHORTWAVE NEAR 40W IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 38W-42W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS AN SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N29W PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E ATLC. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA TO 35W...WHICH IS FURTHER PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE ERN TRPCL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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