[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 80.5W AT 28/0000
UTC...ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...OR
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING
WEST AT 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
65 KNOTS. BERYL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 12N40W TO 3N44W MOVING
W AT 20 KT. AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WIND FIELDS. THE WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST THAT TOGETHER
WITH FRESH NE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 37W-45W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA
LEONE TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N16W TO 5N20W TO 5N30W TO
7N43W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 15W-32W...AND FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH WINDS OF 26 KT AND
GUSTS TO 41 KT ARE PRESENTLY BEING REPORTED AT JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. SEE TROPICAL STORM BERYL ABOVE. A 1017 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA AT 28N92W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF 84W WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA S OF BERYL. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS FROM NEAR
BERYL AT 30N78W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W. THE END
RESULT IS NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF W OF 83W. EXPECT BERYL TO BE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
79W-85W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED FROM UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER MOST OF
CUBA. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND
PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1023
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N68W. A SIMILAR
1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W. A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BERYL AT 30N78W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N42W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM
14N-30N BETWEEN 27W-40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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