[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL AT 27/1200 UTC IS NEAR
30.3N 78.9W...ABOUT 165 MILES/270 KM TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 180 MILES/290 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 16N49W 4N52W
AT 27/0000 UTC HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO BE ALONG 16N38W 12N40W
7N41W ACCORDING TO SATELLITE DATA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W...IN THE
AREA OF ITCZ PRECIPITATION ALSO.

THE 74W/75W TROPICAL WAVE DISSIPATED AND IT WAS DROPPED FROM
THE 27/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE AFRICA COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
9N13W...NEAR ITS BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE...CONTINUING TO 7N17W
AND 6N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N23W 5N34W 4N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 16W AND
22W...WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 4N23W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 54W AND 59W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA THAT IS NEAR
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO COASTAL HONDURAS AND NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN COASTAL BELIZE WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 18N88W. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS COVERING PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
107W IN MEXICO...FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD BEYOND TEXAS.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 85W
FOR 20 KNOT WINDS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA
OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 16N69W...BEYOND 21N68W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 74W/75W TROPICAL WAVE HAS DISSIPATED.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
70W...IN AN AREA OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N TO THE EAST
OF 70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 64W AND 79W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
OF 84W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 21N68W 26N67W AND BEYOND 32N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N38W 29N44W...TO A 26N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 17N54W...TO 7N65W IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND
50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO
29N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N21W...TO 28N33W AND 29N48W.
A SECOND RIDGE GOES FROM 29N58W BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N50W TO 31N52W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH
OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 73W...RELATED TO THE CONDITIONS AROUND THE
AREA OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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