[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL AT 27/0600 UTC IS NEAR
30.8N 77.9W...ABOUT 185 MILES/300 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 230 MILES/370 KM TO THE
EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. BERYL IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER
THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W...AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N49W 10N51W...INTO
EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEARBY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W...MAY BE RELATED MORE
TO THE ITCZ AND NOT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFUSE AND WEAKENING. IT IS MOST
PROBABLE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE 27/0600 UTC
SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE AFRICA COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
9N13W...NEAR ITS BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE...CONTINUING TO 7N17W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W 6N30W 5N42W AND 6N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
6N14W...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND
56W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA THAT IS NEAR
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO COASTAL HONDURAS AND NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N77W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N IN NORTHERN BELIZE TO 20N
BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR TO 17N IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 89W AND 95W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
107W IN MEXICO...FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD BEYOND TEXAS.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA
OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 16N70W...BEYOND 23N68W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 74W/75W TROPICAL WAVE IS BECOMING
DIFFUSE AND WEAKENING. IT IS MOST PROBABLE THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE 27/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W...
IN AN AREA OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 70W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 11N TO
18N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
OF 63W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 20N68W 23N68W AND BEYOND 32N66W...JUST TO THE WEST OF
BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N38W 29N44W...TO
A 26N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N54W...TO 7N65W IN
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 41W AND
42W...AND FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N53W TO 28N55W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS CONNECTED BY A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N20W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N24W...TO 25N34W AND 12N36W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS THAT ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF
70W...RELATED TO THE CONDITIONS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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