[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN AT 26/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
AT 26/1200 UTC IS NEAR 32.0N 76.0W...ABOUT 175 MILES/280 KM SE
OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...AND 240 MILES/385 KM ESE OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 4
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N78W AT THE
CUBA COAST...TO 26N74W BEYOND 32N70W. A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...IS 9.70
INCHES

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N46W 7N48W 2N49W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N66W...TO CURACAO...
TO 10N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LAKE WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 9N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N20W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W 4N35W 2N47W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS BETWEEN 10W AND 40W AND SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF 3N TO THE EAST OF 5W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A 95W RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT SURROUNDS SUBTROPICAL STORM
BERYL...PASSING ACROSS FLORIDA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN THE WESTERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND 100W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT
THE MARINE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF 88W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 16N66W...TO CURACAO...TO 10N70W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF LAKE
MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE LAKE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W
AND 72W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIDING
ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA AND ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N FROM 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 83W INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 65W AND 78W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF
85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO 20N34W
12N48W AND NORTHERN GUYANA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS
PUSHING ITSELF MORE TO THE SOUTH...PASSING THROUGH 32N50W TO
22N51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE IS CONNECTED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N26W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N44W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N60W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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