[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250616 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

CORRECTION FOR A REFERENCE TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...AND COMPLETION OF
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N79W...BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. IT HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY...DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N78W 29N79W...TO THE
1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 19N86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AND FROM CUBA TO
ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF CUBA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN
79W AND 82W. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND RAINY FOR THE LAST
FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER
WATER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS
STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RESIDENTS
WHO LIVE ALONG AND/OR WHO OWN PROPERTY THAT IS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE THAT IS IN YOUR AREA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SITUATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N40W 8N41W 3N42W.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N60W 12N62W 8N63W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF
16N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. SOME OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN DISSIPATING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME NEW AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORMING...DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE GUINEA-BISSAU COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 5N26W 6N36W
3N47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 4N15W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE BUD IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND EVEN
POSSIBLY REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS
THE ENTIRE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM FLORIDA...JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...NORTHWARD...BEYOND THE AREA
THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A 1014 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N86W. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE
WEATHER TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 93W...FOR 20 KNOT
WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FEET.TO THE WEST OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST
OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIDING ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 14N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 8N59W. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 14N60W 12N62W 8N63W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 57W AND
70W. SOME OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME NEW AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORMING...DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
THAT STILL ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N79W IN PANAMA BEYOND 8N83W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF
7N77W...AND IN WESTERN PANAMA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...BETWEEN 65W AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N60W 12N62W 8N63W IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF
16N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W. SOME OF THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN DISSIPATING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME NEW AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN FORMING...DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 28N33W
17N42W AND 7N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N44W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 34N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N56W
TO 31N58W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N64W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE TRADEWIND FLOW
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net