[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS
SHIFTED TOWARDS THE N AND CURRENTLY IS IMPACTING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...SE FLORIDA...AND THE NW BAHAMAS. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE
SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N81W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N78W TO
THE LOW AND CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 20N85W. MOST OF
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
CURRENTLY STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING CENTRAL
CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO FARTHER N ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 73W-80W. REPORTS FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION HAVE RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS POSSIBLE. SE FLORIDA
INCLUDING MIAMI...AND THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING FREEPORT HAVE ALSO
REPORTED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA AND THE
INCREASED RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KT HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO GET BETTER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N24W TO 5N38W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES W OF A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE WAVE LIKELY DUE TO AFRICAN DUST TO THE
N...E...AND W OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N57W TO 8N60W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE WAVE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE AXIS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 56W-59W...AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
60W-66W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF
GUINEA AT 10N13W CONTINUING OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO 4N19W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N19W ALONG 6N38W 4N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
13W-16W...FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 22W-26W...AND ALONG THE AXIS
BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
GEORGIA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS S
FLORIDA...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS E OF THE
GULF. SE-S FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF REACHING UP TO
20-25 KTS OVER THE NW CORNER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N82W TO 20N85W. THE SURFACE LOW
PREVIOUSLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS NOW SHIFTED N TOWARDS S
FLORIDA. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOW RESIDES OVER THE FAR W
ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...SOME HIGH MOISTURE STILL REMAINS OVER
CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY S OF CENTRAL
CUBA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
DOT MUCH OF SRN CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE E PAC MONSOON TROUGH. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
NICARAGUA TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE ATLC. THIS DRY AIR IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN...ENHANCED MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE
STILL E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 61W-67W. THE
WAVE IS WEAK...BUT ENHANCED MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT AND WILL
ADVECT WWD. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. THE
MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT N AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES N OR NE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
IMPACTING AREAS NEAR SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR FULL DETAILS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 65W IS HELPING ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. THE UPPER
RIDGE SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A PAIR OF 1029 MB
HIGHS AT 34N43W AND 36N37W WHICH ARE PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TOWARDS S AMERICA NEAR 12N53W
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N19W TO 27N36W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE AXIS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
LARGE AREA OF DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 55W
EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net