[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS WEAKENED AND IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO AT 22/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO IS NEAR 30.9N 76.5W. IT IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 11 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 245 MILES/
390 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
ABOUT 305 MILES/485 KM TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 32N TO 33N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N80W 32N67W...SURROUNDING THE
FEATURE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC
BULLETIN MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N20W 10N21W 6N22W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N46W 7N49W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM
24N47W TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
17N16W TO 13N20W 5N24W 3N30W 3N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N33W TO 6N41W 8N47W...CURVING TO 7N52W AND 5N56W IN NORTHERN
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W AND FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
EARLIER AND ALREADY DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI/
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MISSISSIPPI TOWARD WESTERN ALABAMA...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH CUTS
THROUGH FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN END OF A MOSTLY NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE AREA...MOVING AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...
THANKS TO A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS ROUGHLY
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N86W...TO
20N86W 22N85W 23N84W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N74W.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY IT REACHES
31N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
28N44W TO A 24N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 24N50W TO 18N60W 7N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS RELATED TO THE
23N84W 18N86W SURFACE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION CONTAINS MORE DETAILS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N44W TO A 24N47W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N...
MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N18W...TO 30N30W 30N43W...AND
BEYOND A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N53W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET
BETWEEN 35W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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