[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS A SMALL OUT-OF-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ALBERTO IS THE EARLIEST FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN SINCE ANA IN 2003. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
IS NEAR 30.4N 79.7W AT 21/0900 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT
100 MILES/165 KM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA...AND 165 MILES/270 KM TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA. ALBERTO IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD 4 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 25N74W 23N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 66W
AND 70W. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC BULLETIN MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N37W 7N38W 4N38W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 8N13W
TO 2N20W AND 5N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N26W TO 7N36W AND
6N45W...INTO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W AND FROM
5N TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND
34W AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 31N80W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA/
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SEPARATE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
SECTION...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
WEST OF 70W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS ROUGHLY THE SAME
AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM WESTERN HONDURAS
TO 23N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND PARTS OF CUBA TO THE
WEST OF 76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 22N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CUTTING ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF
18N BETWEEN 64W AND 83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N81W
IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON ALBERTO...A SMALL OUT-OF-SEASON
TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALBERTO IS THE EARLIEST FORMING TROPICAL STORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANA IN 2003. THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION CONTAINS MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
29N45W TO A 22N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W FROM 22N TO 28N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N31W TO A SECOND 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N55W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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