[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 210841
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH BROKEN RAINBANDS CONTINUING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BE WEAKER. THE TROPICAL STORM
IS QUITE COMPACT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING NO MORE
THAN 150 N MI ACROSS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER THE
GULF STREAM...WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
WARM...VERY DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEREFORE...KEEPS ALBERTO AT THE SAME
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...ALBERTO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS
AND BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...NEARLY COMPLETING THE ANTICIPATED
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TODAY AS AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...TAKING THE COMPACT
TROPICAL STORM PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE...OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COASTLINE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 30.4N  79.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 30.6N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 31.8N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 33.5N  74.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 35.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



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