[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS A SMALL OUT-OF-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ALBERTO IS THE EARLIEST FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN SINCE ANA IN 2003. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
IS NEAR 30.5N 80.1W AT 21/0300 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT
85 MILES/135 KM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA...AND 160 MILES/255 KM TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA. ALBERTO IS MOVING SOUTHWARD 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N71W 26N75W 23N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST
OF 76W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 29N68W...AND FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN
69W AND 71W. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
RIP CURRENTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC BULLETIN MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N35W 7N37W 3N37W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 3N20W AND 3N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N25W TO 6N32W AND
7N35W 5N44W...INTO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 12W AND
14W AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 9N55W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 8W AND 20W...FROM 5N TO 6N
BETWEEN 28W AND 34W AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 31N80W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA/
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SEPARATE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
WEST OF 70W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS ROUGHLY THE SAME
AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N86W...INTO THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND PARTS
OF CUBA TO THE WEST OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CUTTING
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 66W AND 83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N FROM 82W
BEYOND 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON ALBERTO...A SMALL OUT-OF-SEASON
TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALBERTO IS THE EARLIEST FORMING TROPICAL STORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANA IN 2003. THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION CONTAINS MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
29N46W TO A 22N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO EASTERN
VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N71W 25N72W 22N73W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA...MOVING AROUND A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net