[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 80.0W AT 20/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA...OR ABOUT
130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING SW OR 235
DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
ALBERTO IS INGESTING DRY AIR...AND IT HAS MOVED OVER SHELF WATERS
THAT ARE COLDER THAN 26C. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE CENTER.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N33W TO 4N34W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC-TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THE
WAVE IS HOWEVER VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 10N14W AND
EXTENDS SW TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N20W TO 7N34W
TO 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 6W-9W...AND FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 15W-19W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
THE ITCZ ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
52W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT NE TO E FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 23N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER S FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N. ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N
BETWEEN 88W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 20N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS AT 16N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 82W-89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 82W-90W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 71W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON ALBERTO...A SMALL OUT-OF-SEASON
TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALBERTO IS THE EARLIEST FORMING TROPICAL STORM
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANA IN 2003. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN VICINITY OF THE
BAHAMAS FROM 29N72W TO 22N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 71W-77W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N40W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER MOST
OF THE ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 65W TO WEST AFRICA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 22N BETWEEN 64W-71W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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